A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
